<p>The agricultural sector is pivotal for ensuring a stable food supply and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions under climate change. This study quantifies the interaction between grain productivity and GHG emissions in China by combining spatial productivity assessment with econometric modeling. Specifically, a localized Agro-Ecological Zone model is used to map the spatiotemporal dynamics of grain productivity. A simultaneous equation model is then developed to identify the synergetic drivers between productivity growth and emission reduction. Empirical findings reveal a significant synergistic relationship between higher grain productivity and lower emission intensity in China (β<sub>CI</sub> = -0.058<sup>***</sup>, β<sub>GP</sub> = -1.071<sup>**</sup>). The middle-lower Yangtze River Plain has already emerged as a low-emission, high-productivity grain production zone. In contrast, the Northeast Plain requires more attention to mitigating emissions amid the northward shift of grain productivity. Further analysis indicates that improving resource efficiency (β<sub>1_IE</sub> = 0.159<sup>***</sup>, β<sub>2_IE</sub> = -0.765<sup>***</sup>) and adopting sustainable cropland management practices, such as conservation tillage and straw return (β<sub>2_CT</sub> = -0.014<sup>***</sup>, β<sub>2_SR</sub> = -0.0347<sup>***</sup>), significantly strengthen this synergy. The findings demonstrate the feasibility of achieving productivity gains with reduced emissions in China and explore actionable pathways to achieve this synergy. These insights provide a valuable reference for designing agricultural policies that jointly support food security and climate change mitigation.</p>

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Exploring the synergy between grain productivity growth and greenhouse gas emission reduction in China

  • Yifei Wang,
  • Wenxuan Wang,
  • Zehao Wang,
  • Peiheng Yu,
  • Xiangzheng Deng

摘要

The agricultural sector is pivotal for ensuring a stable food supply and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions under climate change. This study quantifies the interaction between grain productivity and GHG emissions in China by combining spatial productivity assessment with econometric modeling. Specifically, a localized Agro-Ecological Zone model is used to map the spatiotemporal dynamics of grain productivity. A simultaneous equation model is then developed to identify the synergetic drivers between productivity growth and emission reduction. Empirical findings reveal a significant synergistic relationship between higher grain productivity and lower emission intensity in China (βCI = -0.058***, βGP = -1.071**). The middle-lower Yangtze River Plain has already emerged as a low-emission, high-productivity grain production zone. In contrast, the Northeast Plain requires more attention to mitigating emissions amid the northward shift of grain productivity. Further analysis indicates that improving resource efficiency (β1_IE = 0.159***, β2_IE = -0.765***) and adopting sustainable cropland management practices, such as conservation tillage and straw return (β2_CT = -0.014***, β2_SR = -0.0347***), significantly strengthen this synergy. The findings demonstrate the feasibility of achieving productivity gains with reduced emissions in China and explore actionable pathways to achieve this synergy. These insights provide a valuable reference for designing agricultural policies that jointly support food security and climate change mitigation.