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<p>The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented global spatial rupture, highlighting the geopolitical utility of logistical lifelines. However, the diplomatic returns of state-backed aviation remain empirically unquantified due to an immaterial bias in soft power literature and the siloed nature of transport economics. Utilizing a 48-month Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework, this study contrasts the geopolitical trajectories of state-backed flag carriers against privatized, market-disciplined airlines. Overcoming pandemic-era scheduling inaccuracies, we extract raw ADS-B spatial telemetry to operationalize kinetic statecraft. Deploying dual econometric models against macro-perception indices and micro-diplomatic praise text-mined from the Global Diplomacy Net (GDN) corpus, we empirically demonstrate the “Illusion of Latent Capital”—proving that domestic aviation bailouts yielded zero geopolitical returns. Conversely, deploying a state-backed “aerial embassy” generated bilateral diplomatic praise at a rate 3.35 times higher than market-disciplined carriers. Ultimately, this research proves that during systemic crises, soft power is inherently kinetic and strictly logistical.</p>

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The aerial embassy: measuring the diplomatic returns of sovereign aviation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Bulent Aras,
  • Feray Kucukbas Duman

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented global spatial rupture, highlighting the geopolitical utility of logistical lifelines. However, the diplomatic returns of state-backed aviation remain empirically unquantified due to an immaterial bias in soft power literature and the siloed nature of transport economics. Utilizing a 48-month Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework, this study contrasts the geopolitical trajectories of state-backed flag carriers against privatized, market-disciplined airlines. Overcoming pandemic-era scheduling inaccuracies, we extract raw ADS-B spatial telemetry to operationalize kinetic statecraft. Deploying dual econometric models against macro-perception indices and micro-diplomatic praise text-mined from the Global Diplomacy Net (GDN) corpus, we empirically demonstrate the “Illusion of Latent Capital”—proving that domestic aviation bailouts yielded zero geopolitical returns. Conversely, deploying a state-backed “aerial embassy” generated bilateral diplomatic praise at a rate 3.35 times higher than market-disciplined carriers. Ultimately, this research proves that during systemic crises, soft power is inherently kinetic and strictly logistical.