The domestic politics of European responses to Trump’s demands in defence and trade

Why did EU member states’ immediate responses to Donald Trump’s demands on trade and defence considerably differ? While some favoured resisting US demands, others preferred a conciliatory approach, and some converged with them. This paper argues that domestic societal driving forces primarily shape the international positions of democratically accountable governments. Consequently, European governments’ reactions to the new challenges brought about by Trump’s return to the White House are seen as primarily determined by domestic factors. The paper employs core arguments of the societal approach to governmental preference formation and of foreign policy analysis, and correlates the positions of German, Italian, and Polish governments on Trump’s policy demands with domestic forces. It maintains that the material interests of business groups and the ideational expectations of voters inform governmental preferences. Additionally, the paper examines the ideological orientation of the governing party as an influence on government positions that emphasises politicians’ potential autonomy from voters and business groups. Thus, the original contribution of this paper lies both in the timely and comparative assessment of the reasons behind European divergences integrating societal and foreign policy approaches.