<p>The unprecedented rise in the US oil production has threatened OPEC’s long dominance in the international oil market. Consequently, an intense tussle over who dominates the market has since ensued between the two (the US and OPEC) in ways that have continued to adversely affect the revenue and economy of Nigeria. Arising from the revenue crisis is rising national debt to the whopping sum of ₦87.38 trillion ($113.42 billion) in 2023. While extant studies explain this as a consequence of fund mismanagement, oil theft, ageing infrastructure, etc., the role of the intense struggle over who bestrides the global oil market in Nigeria’s political economy is completely ignored. This article, therefore, examines the impact of the US-OPEC tussle in the global oil market on Nigeria’s revenue and debt crises between 2015 and 2023. The paper relied on secondary archival data, content analysis, and meta-synthesis of documented data on global/regional oil inventories/prices and on Nigeria’s economic performance. Anchored on the Global Strategic Rivalry Theory, the study reveals that strategic political and economic manoeuvrings between the US and OPEC have worsened Nigeria’s public debt by undermining its major revenue source via opportunistic oil price and supply upsets. Refocusing Nigeria’s revenue base via economic diversification towards insulating the domestic sectors, while also ensuring that bust cycles do not constrain foreign exchange from/for non-oil sectors (development) is recommended. Also recommended is investment in both human capital development and R&amp;D in the oil sector for improved capacity capable of transforming Nigeria to a significant player in the global oil market.</p>

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Political economy of the US-OPEC tussle in the global oil market: understanding Nigeria’s revenue and debt crises

  • Celestine Uchechukwu Udeogu

摘要

The unprecedented rise in the US oil production has threatened OPEC’s long dominance in the international oil market. Consequently, an intense tussle over who dominates the market has since ensued between the two (the US and OPEC) in ways that have continued to adversely affect the revenue and economy of Nigeria. Arising from the revenue crisis is rising national debt to the whopping sum of ₦87.38 trillion ($113.42 billion) in 2023. While extant studies explain this as a consequence of fund mismanagement, oil theft, ageing infrastructure, etc., the role of the intense struggle over who bestrides the global oil market in Nigeria’s political economy is completely ignored. This article, therefore, examines the impact of the US-OPEC tussle in the global oil market on Nigeria’s revenue and debt crises between 2015 and 2023. The paper relied on secondary archival data, content analysis, and meta-synthesis of documented data on global/regional oil inventories/prices and on Nigeria’s economic performance. Anchored on the Global Strategic Rivalry Theory, the study reveals that strategic political and economic manoeuvrings between the US and OPEC have worsened Nigeria’s public debt by undermining its major revenue source via opportunistic oil price and supply upsets. Refocusing Nigeria’s revenue base via economic diversification towards insulating the domestic sectors, while also ensuring that bust cycles do not constrain foreign exchange from/for non-oil sectors (development) is recommended. Also recommended is investment in both human capital development and R&D in the oil sector for improved capacity capable of transforming Nigeria to a significant player in the global oil market.