International borders and armed conflicts in Europe and Northeast Asia since 1945: the moral hazard of great-power encroachments

This article discusses the significance of international borders in Europe and Northeast Asia during the Cold War (1945–1989) and after. Using the concept of “moral hazard,” the article examines what happens when great powers frequently violate the borders of neighboring countries without suffering adverse repercussions. Norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity are viable only if large countries are willing to uphold them most of the time. The Soviet Union used or threatened to use military force against East European countries on numerous occasions (1953, 1956, 1968, 1980–1981) with impunity. After the USSR broke apart, the Russian Federation adopted a similarly domineering policy toward the former Soviet republics. Russian forces in Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Ukraine served as instruments of Moscow’s hegemony in those countries. Until 2014, Western governments made little or no effort to deter or counter Russian military encroachments in neighboring states. By then, under the principle of moral hazard, leaders in the Kremlin had come to believe that they could act with a free hand in the former USSR.