<p>This paper examines monetary policy transmission to household credit in a developing country using loan-level data from Uganda’s credit registry. We analyze more than 632,000 household loans issued by all commercial banks between 2017 and 2023, a period marked by significant policy rate fluctuations, and document that rate hikes are associated with higher lending rates and reduced loan size and maturity. Including time-varying borrower-group fixed effects to absorb the average pass-through, we identify whether transmission differs across banks depending on their balance sheet characteristics. The pass-through is stronger for banks with lower liquidity and capital ratios and higher government securities holdings. The effects are more pronounced for fixed-rate loans than for floating-rate loans. In general, our results support the presence of a bank lending channel in Uganda, similar to what is observed in more advanced economies.</p>

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Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data

  • Marina Conesa-Martinez,
  • Elizabeth Kasekende,
  • Nan Li,
  • Adam Mugume,
  • Samuel Namwanja Musoke,
  • Cedric Okou,
  • Andrea Presbitero

摘要

This paper examines monetary policy transmission to household credit in a developing country using loan-level data from Uganda’s credit registry. We analyze more than 632,000 household loans issued by all commercial banks between 2017 and 2023, a period marked by significant policy rate fluctuations, and document that rate hikes are associated with higher lending rates and reduced loan size and maturity. Including time-varying borrower-group fixed effects to absorb the average pass-through, we identify whether transmission differs across banks depending on their balance sheet characteristics. The pass-through is stronger for banks with lower liquidity and capital ratios and higher government securities holdings. The effects are more pronounced for fixed-rate loans than for floating-rate loans. In general, our results support the presence of a bank lending channel in Uganda, similar to what is observed in more advanced economies.