<p>Natural disasters pose mounting risks to macroeconomic growth and stability in many parts of the world. This paper provides new empirical evidence on how large natural disasters affect output growth and its components, using a comprehensive global dataset covering 1980–2019. In advanced economies, government spending rises quickly, cushioning the decline in private investment and limiting growth losses. In contrast, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) respond with more limited fiscal support, which fails to counteract the immediate negative impact on output growth, mainly driven by falling investment in non-small island EMDEs and declining net exports (often tied to tourism and vulnerable infrastructure) in small island EMDEs. Cross-country heterogeneity further reveals that countries with greater adaptive capacity—the availability of social resources for adaptation enabled by structural and institutional factors—and greater fiscal space are more resilient, while small islands and fiscally constrained economies suffer the most persistent output losses. These results highlight the importance of fiscal buffers and institutional readiness in mitigating the economic consequences of natural disasters and underscore the need for policy strategies to strengthen resilience.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters

  • Ha Minh Nguyen,
  • Alan Feng,
  • Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

摘要

Natural disasters pose mounting risks to macroeconomic growth and stability in many parts of the world. This paper provides new empirical evidence on how large natural disasters affect output growth and its components, using a comprehensive global dataset covering 1980–2019. In advanced economies, government spending rises quickly, cushioning the decline in private investment and limiting growth losses. In contrast, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) respond with more limited fiscal support, which fails to counteract the immediate negative impact on output growth, mainly driven by falling investment in non-small island EMDEs and declining net exports (often tied to tourism and vulnerable infrastructure) in small island EMDEs. Cross-country heterogeneity further reveals that countries with greater adaptive capacity—the availability of social resources for adaptation enabled by structural and institutional factors—and greater fiscal space are more resilient, while small islands and fiscally constrained economies suffer the most persistent output losses. These results highlight the importance of fiscal buffers and institutional readiness in mitigating the economic consequences of natural disasters and underscore the need for policy strategies to strengthen resilience.