Unpacking the Dutch Disease: Resource Windfalls and Export Margins
摘要
What are the impacts of resource windfalls on the extensive and intensive margins of non-resource exports? Studies suggest that these windfalls could be detrimental to non-resource exports but are not clear on the margins through which exports adjust to resource windfalls. Exploiting the exogenous variation in the windfalls generated by the increase in prices of all major commodities during the early 2000s, this paper evaluates the impacts of resource windfalls on manufacturing exports at extensive and intensive margins. In addition, it examines whether the impacts vary across commodity groups and the degree of resource dependence across countries. Commodity windfalls have a negative impact at both the extensive and intensive margins, and the impact at the intensive margin accounts for the lion’s share of the decline. However, the effects are heterogeneous across commodity groups. For example, windfalls derived from energy negatively impact the extensive margin. In contrast, those from minerals have a negative impact at the intensive margin, and those from agricultural commodities have a positive impact at the intensive margin. These findings provide essential insights for policy in terms of designing policy interventions to counter the implications of resource windfalls across export margins and commodity groups.