Estimating the effects of outdoor crime prevention interventions using a staggered difference-in-differences model
摘要
This study evaluates outdoor environmental interventions implemented by a municipal public housing provider in police-designated vulnerable residential areas in Gothenburg, Sweden. Using geocoded address-level crime data (2019–2023) and a staggered difference-in-differences design, we estimate the effects of such interventions on outdoor-related crime drawing on crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) and related environmental crime prevention approaches. Across multiple specifications and control groups, we find no statistically significant reductions following intervention exposure. Event-study estimates indicate no differential pre-treatment trends, and robustness checks yield substantively similar results. Descriptive spatial analyses show no consistent evidence of crime displacement. The findings suggest that broad, multi-purpose housing-led improvement strategies do not automatically translate into measurable crime reductions when preventive mechanisms are diffuse or weakly aligned with specific crime problems. The study highlights the importance of aligning environmental interventions with clearly defined crime problems and contributes to debates on the role of public housing providers in community safety governance.