Catalytic converter theft: An examination of the elasticity of crime

Catalytic converters are part of a vehicle’s exhaust system and contain valuable metals (i.e., platinum, palladium, and rhodium). The value of these metals has risen dramatically, and so they have the incidents of theft. This study contributes in two important ways: First, it provides insight into an emerging crime trend of catalsytic converter theft, and second, it advances knowledge of the elasticity of crime, specifically how the value of metal impacts thefts. Data on catalytic converter thefts were collected from official police reports and social media complaints in eight California cities for 42 months. We use regression analysis to study the weekly estimated value of catalytic converters and theft. Our regression approach, which we estimate using feasible generalized least squares, accounts for the non-stationarity in weekly metal thefts and allows for autocorrelation in a panel setting. Findings reveal an average price elasticity of 1.98, meaning that a 10% increase in metal prices results in approximately a 20% increase in catalytic converter thefts. The results illustrate how the value of metals impacts thefts.