<p>The coherence of ideological narratives in the Euro Area is a necessary condition for the sustainability of the monetary union. Narratives shape political preferences, and if they diverge persistently, cooperation between member states becomes impossible. We measure the evolution of ideological narratives in member states of the Euro Area over half a century in a two-dimensional space called the ideological field. In addition to the classical left–right cleavage, we define a cultural dimension that is inspired by Karl Popper’s and Louis Dumont’s distinction between individualism and holism, i.e. between open and closed societies. It describes the relation between individuals and the collective and underpins the distinction between liberal and illiberal states. We find that ideological preferences, as expressed by people voting for party programmes, have converged—but less so in the new member states. Thus, the institutional framework of the monetary union has contributed to greater ideological convergence inside the Euro Area. However, most societies have also become ideologically less open (illiberal) which makes further European integration more difficult. We then study the impact of ideological narratives on economic growth, prices stability and public debt. Germany is the leader of a conservative group of member states, France of a left-leaning group. Both models are compatible with the Maastricht objectives of price stability and low public debt ratios, but only the French model of open society with social equality supports economic growth.</p>

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Unity or Fragmentation? Ideological Shifts and Their Economic Consequences in the Euro Area

  • Stefan Collignon,
  • Davide Orsitto

摘要

The coherence of ideological narratives in the Euro Area is a necessary condition for the sustainability of the monetary union. Narratives shape political preferences, and if they diverge persistently, cooperation between member states becomes impossible. We measure the evolution of ideological narratives in member states of the Euro Area over half a century in a two-dimensional space called the ideological field. In addition to the classical left–right cleavage, we define a cultural dimension that is inspired by Karl Popper’s and Louis Dumont’s distinction between individualism and holism, i.e. between open and closed societies. It describes the relation between individuals and the collective and underpins the distinction between liberal and illiberal states. We find that ideological preferences, as expressed by people voting for party programmes, have converged—but less so in the new member states. Thus, the institutional framework of the monetary union has contributed to greater ideological convergence inside the Euro Area. However, most societies have also become ideologically less open (illiberal) which makes further European integration more difficult. We then study the impact of ideological narratives on economic growth, prices stability and public debt. Germany is the leader of a conservative group of member states, France of a left-leaning group. Both models are compatible with the Maastricht objectives of price stability and low public debt ratios, but only the French model of open society with social equality supports economic growth.