Exploring the Drivers of Decarbonization in the EU: The Impact of Economic Growth, Energy Use, Land Management and Urbanization on CO₂ Emissions

Over a decade after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, and in the midst of what has been called the “decisive decade” for climate action, the European Union faces the challenge of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Despite significant progress, there is considerable variability in emission reduction pathways across EU Member States due to their different stages of economic development, energy profiles and land management approaches. Our study addresses this challenge by exploring the key drivers of decarbonisation in the EU-27 Member states during the period 2000–2022 via regression clustering analysis to identify distinct clusters of EU countries based on their common characteristics and development patterns. Our analysis identified five clusters, revealing significant variability. While energy use is a dominant contributor to CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consistently demonstrates a mitigating effect across most clusters. Interestingly, land management (LULUCF) exhibits a significant mitigating effect in Cluster 3 and 4 but a carbon-driving effect in Cluster 1 and 5. This approach allows us to gain more nuanced insights into the different pathways of decarbonization. The findings suggest that one-size-fits-all policy interventions may not be sufficient and call for more targeted and tailored approaches.