The Deep Historical Roots of Export Diversification in 49 Developing Countries: The Role of Ancestral Biodiversity
摘要
This article analyzes the influence of deeply rooted historical factors on contemporary export diversification in developing countries. It relocates the explanation of divergent structural transformation patterns from colonial legacies to pre-colonial determinants, particularly biodiversity, defined as the historical endowment of domesticated plant and animal species that foster productive activity and human development. The analyses focus on a sample of 49 developing economies over the period 1995–2019. Ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares estimation methods applied to cross-sectional data show that countries with higher ancestral biodiversity exhibit significantly greater export diversification. We further demonstrate that this relationship operates through long-run transmission channels, notably human capital accumulation and economic growth. A series of sensitivity analyses incorporating sociocultural characteristics and other measures of biodiversity confirms the robustness of our findings. Overall, the article highlights ancestral biogeography as a fundamental but neglected determinant of export diversification, shedding new light on the deep historical origins of persistent disparities in the productive structures of developing economies.