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<p>Economic convergence remains a central objective of the European integration process, with crucial economic and social implications for long-term stability and cohesion. This paper aims to examine the key determinants of GDP per capita across member countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on the roles of EMU membership, institutional quality, and selected macroeconomic variables. The analysis covers the period from 1990 to 2023 and employs panel regression techniques, including pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators, to ensure robustness of results. The findings indicate that EMU membership, stronger institutional quality, government expenditure on education, foreign direct investment (FDI) and higher trade openness are significantly associated with increased GDP per capita. Additionally, the study explores the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing heterogeneous impacts across countries that underscore the importance of institutional resilience. The results suggest that policies aimed at improving governance structures and enhancing investment environments can contribute not only to economic growth but also to reducing regional disparities, thereby supporting broader social and economic convergence within the EMU.</p>

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Determinants of GDP per capita in EMU countries: membership, institutional quality, and macroeconomic factors (1990–2023)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月22日

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  • Hrvoje Jošić,
  • Berislav Žmuk

摘要

Economic convergence remains a central objective of the European integration process, with crucial economic and social implications for long-term stability and cohesion. This paper aims to examine the key determinants of GDP per capita across member countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on the roles of EMU membership, institutional quality, and selected macroeconomic variables. The analysis covers the period from 1990 to 2023 and employs panel regression techniques, including pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators, to ensure robustness of results. The findings indicate that EMU membership, stronger institutional quality, government expenditure on education, foreign direct investment (FDI) and higher trade openness are significantly associated with increased GDP per capita. Additionally, the study explores the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing heterogeneous impacts across countries that underscore the importance of institutional resilience. The results suggest that policies aimed at improving governance structures and enhancing investment environments can contribute not only to economic growth but also to reducing regional disparities, thereby supporting broader social and economic convergence within the EMU.