Managing basis risks in weather parametric insurance: a quantitative study of diversification and key influencing factors
摘要
Weather parametric insurance relies on weather indices rather than actual loss assessments, improving claims efficiency, reducing moral hazard, and improving fairness. In the context of increasing climate change risks, despite growing interest and demand, the market share of weather parametric insurance remains limited due to inherent basis risk—the mismatch between actual loss and payout, manifesting as ‘actual loss without payout’ or ‘payout without acutal loss’. This paper isolates basis risk as a structural feature of parametric trigger, decoupling it from financial impacts on insurers or policyholders to focus on its fundamental properties. Through novel empirical research using Monte Carlo simulations of diversified contract portfolios, we demonstrate that: (1) portfolio basis risk and basis risk volatility will decrease as the number of contracts increases, (2) basis risk follows deterministic patterns based on the ratio of ‘exposure-weather station distance’ to ‘hazard footprint radius’, providing geometry-driven reference, and (3) hazard event severity does not significantly impact basis risk, suggesting that catastrophic disaster severity should not hinder parametric insurance development. While basis risk is inherent, these results demonstrate its manageability through portfolio strategy and geospatial optimisation, while offering particularly actionable value for insurers, who are uniquely positioned to implement large-scale diversification strategies that individual policyholders usually cannot practically achieve.