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<p>This study examines the spatial effects of terrorist attacks on tourist arrivals in 15 Middle Eastern countries from 2000 to 2022 using a spatial panel econometrics approach. Before model estimation, spatial autocorrelation tests were employed to determine the optimal spatial model, and the spatial autoregressive model was selected among alternative spatial models. The results indicate that the terrorism index negatively and significantly affects the number of tourist arrivals in both the target and neighboring countries. Additionally, the variables of gross domestic product and political stability index positively and significantly impact tourist arrivals. In contrast, the inflation rate negatively and substantially affects tourist inflows. Based on the research findings, it is recommended that a regional security pact be concluded, political stability be increased in countries affected by terrorist attacks, and border security be enhanced between countries involved in terrorist activities to attract more tourists.</p>

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Spatial effects of insecurity on attracting tourists in Middle East countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月1日

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  • Vahid Nikpey Pesyan,
  • Bita Shahbazi,
  • Yousef Mohammadzadeh,
  • Ali Rezazadeh,
  • Alireza Tamizi

摘要

This study examines the spatial effects of terrorist attacks on tourist arrivals in 15 Middle Eastern countries from 2000 to 2022 using a spatial panel econometrics approach. Before model estimation, spatial autocorrelation tests were employed to determine the optimal spatial model, and the spatial autoregressive model was selected among alternative spatial models. The results indicate that the terrorism index negatively and significantly affects the number of tourist arrivals in both the target and neighboring countries. Additionally, the variables of gross domestic product and political stability index positively and significantly impact tourist arrivals. In contrast, the inflation rate negatively and substantially affects tourist inflows. Based on the research findings, it is recommended that a regional security pact be concluded, political stability be increased in countries affected by terrorist attacks, and border security be enhanced between countries involved in terrorist activities to attract more tourists.