<p>This study analyses the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on firm valuations, utilising monthly data from publicly traded Indian firms between 2015 and 2025. We utilise linear, nonlinear, asymmetric, currency-specific, and crisis-sensitive models to analyse sectoral forex exposure, revealing significant variation across sectors, currencies, and crises. Merely 16% of firms exhibit substantial linear exposure to the trade weighted exchange rate, however, the sectoral diversity behind this aggregate statistic is significant. Resource-intensive sectors, like Metals &amp; Mining and Construction Materials, have the most sensitivity, while Healthcare and Power sectors remain predominantly insulated. Currency-specific models indicate a greater sensitivity to the EUR and JPY compared to the USD, highlighting changing trade connections. Over one-third of firms exhibit nonlinear or asymmetric reactions. Exposure approximately doubled during the COVID pandemic and remained high during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, substantiating the significance of the regime. The research presents an innovative integration of several functional specifications, alternative exchange rates,&#xa0;and crisis periods, in conjunction with firm-level explanations for forex exposure. The findings advocate for sector-specific, multi-currency, and dynamic hedging strategies that surpass traditional methods.</p>

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Transmission of exchange rate volatility to firm valuations during global shocks: evidence from Indian firms

  • Twinkle Jaiswal,
  • Amit Gautam

摘要

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on firm valuations, utilising monthly data from publicly traded Indian firms between 2015 and 2025. We utilise linear, nonlinear, asymmetric, currency-specific, and crisis-sensitive models to analyse sectoral forex exposure, revealing significant variation across sectors, currencies, and crises. Merely 16% of firms exhibit substantial linear exposure to the trade weighted exchange rate, however, the sectoral diversity behind this aggregate statistic is significant. Resource-intensive sectors, like Metals & Mining and Construction Materials, have the most sensitivity, while Healthcare and Power sectors remain predominantly insulated. Currency-specific models indicate a greater sensitivity to the EUR and JPY compared to the USD, highlighting changing trade connections. Over one-third of firms exhibit nonlinear or asymmetric reactions. Exposure approximately doubled during the COVID pandemic and remained high during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, substantiating the significance of the regime. The research presents an innovative integration of several functional specifications, alternative exchange rates, and crisis periods, in conjunction with firm-level explanations for forex exposure. The findings advocate for sector-specific, multi-currency, and dynamic hedging strategies that surpass traditional methods.