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<p>Digital retail platforms increasingly combine embedded seller financing with platform-managed fulfilment, making internal fee and logistics policies potential drivers of credit risk. This paper studies a major fulfilment-policy reform at a large e-commerce platform that raised per-order fees, introduced delay-handling charges and repriced returns. Using internal data on more than 1.2&#xa0;million orders and around 9500 active sellers, and exploiting a staggered difference-in-differences and event-study design, we estimate the policy’s effect on seller default probabilities and expected credit loss (ECL). The policy worsens operational performance for treated sellers: on-time fulfilment declines, return rates increase and refund ratios rise. PD30 increases by about 0.4–0.5% points, while PD60 and PD90 rise by roughly 0.6–0.7% points, corresponding to a 20–30% increase relative to pre-policy base rates. ECL per seller–week rises by around 0.04 thousand currency units, implying an additional expected loss of roughly 150,000–220,000 currency units per one million units of GMV. ECL decomposition shows that the increase is not exclusively PD-driven: LGD and refund ratios also rise, while EAD does not change significantly. Mediation-style and DDD evidence indicate that operational and refund-related effects are concentrated in platform-managed fulfilment, especially among low-margin and highly fulfilment-dependent sellers. The results are robust to alternative windows, announcement-period exclusions, richer fixed effects and separate LGD/EAD sensitivity checks, highlighting platform fee and logistics decisions as de facto credit-risk levers.</p>

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When fulfilment fees become credit-risk levers: evidence from a large e-commerce platform

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Nima Rostamian,
  • Alireza Taghizadeh,
  • Marzieh Nasiri Muselu,
  • Reza Ahmadi Lashaki,
  • Maral Mirzamohammadi

摘要

Digital retail platforms increasingly combine embedded seller financing with platform-managed fulfilment, making internal fee and logistics policies potential drivers of credit risk. This paper studies a major fulfilment-policy reform at a large e-commerce platform that raised per-order fees, introduced delay-handling charges and repriced returns. Using internal data on more than 1.2 million orders and around 9500 active sellers, and exploiting a staggered difference-in-differences and event-study design, we estimate the policy’s effect on seller default probabilities and expected credit loss (ECL). The policy worsens operational performance for treated sellers: on-time fulfilment declines, return rates increase and refund ratios rise. PD30 increases by about 0.4–0.5% points, while PD60 and PD90 rise by roughly 0.6–0.7% points, corresponding to a 20–30% increase relative to pre-policy base rates. ECL per seller–week rises by around 0.04 thousand currency units, implying an additional expected loss of roughly 150,000–220,000 currency units per one million units of GMV. ECL decomposition shows that the increase is not exclusively PD-driven: LGD and refund ratios also rise, while EAD does not change significantly. Mediation-style and DDD evidence indicate that operational and refund-related effects are concentrated in platform-managed fulfilment, especially among low-margin and highly fulfilment-dependent sellers. The results are robust to alternative windows, announcement-period exclusions, richer fixed effects and separate LGD/EAD sensitivity checks, highlighting platform fee and logistics decisions as de facto credit-risk levers.