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<p>This study examines the impact of China’s digital yuan (e-CNY) on commercial bank profitability and liquidity stability using data from 2010 to 2020. Using a scenario-simulation framework and quantile regression, the results show that unmitigated CBDC adoption could significantly erode commercial banks’ return on equity (ROE) through deposit substitution. These adverse effects are particularly pronounced for small banks, which are structurally vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on customer deposits. The analysis underscores the importance of a conservative, phased rollout, specifically a conditional holding limit, to manage systemic liquidity risks. The findings provide policymakers with actionable insights for calibrating risk mitigation strategies as the digital currency ecosystem evolves.</p>

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The impact of CBDC on bank profitability in China: an analysis based on E-CNY

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Hui Chen,
  • Zarina Md Nor,
  • Rafisah Mat Radzi,
  • Zuxia Dong,
  • Qianhui Ren

摘要

This study examines the impact of China’s digital yuan (e-CNY) on commercial bank profitability and liquidity stability using data from 2010 to 2020. Using a scenario-simulation framework and quantile regression, the results show that unmitigated CBDC adoption could significantly erode commercial banks’ return on equity (ROE) through deposit substitution. These adverse effects are particularly pronounced for small banks, which are structurally vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on customer deposits. The analysis underscores the importance of a conservative, phased rollout, specifically a conditional holding limit, to manage systemic liquidity risks. The findings provide policymakers with actionable insights for calibrating risk mitigation strategies as the digital currency ecosystem evolves.