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<p>Under the dual constraints of the International Maritime Organization’s decarbonization efforts and the European Union’s Emissions Trading System, this study develops an evaluation framework, integrating large language models and knowledge graphs to systematically assess the potential of alternative fuels. An ontological model with fifteen indicators across four dimensions evaluates the transition potential of LNG, methanol, hydrogen, ammonia, and biofuels. A TVP-VAR model further examines the dynamic effects of alternative fuel prices on the shipping transition. The results show that LNG remains the most practical and less risky transitional option, methanol serves as a key mid-term solution, while hydrogen and ammonia offer zero-carbon potential but face cost and infrastructure constraints. The effects of alternative fuel prices on shipping transition are highly time-varying, and major policy events significantly amplify the influence of price signals on transition investment decisions. The paper provides new methodological and empirical evidence to support the advancement of the transition to green shipping.</p>

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Sailing towards the green deep sea: alternative fuels and shipping transition

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月18日

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  • Shuiyang Chen,
  • Bin Meng,
  • Hercules Haralambides

摘要

Under the dual constraints of the International Maritime Organization’s decarbonization efforts and the European Union’s Emissions Trading System, this study develops an evaluation framework, integrating large language models and knowledge graphs to systematically assess the potential of alternative fuels. An ontological model with fifteen indicators across four dimensions evaluates the transition potential of LNG, methanol, hydrogen, ammonia, and biofuels. A TVP-VAR model further examines the dynamic effects of alternative fuel prices on the shipping transition. The results show that LNG remains the most practical and less risky transitional option, methanol serves as a key mid-term solution, while hydrogen and ammonia offer zero-carbon potential but face cost and infrastructure constraints. The effects of alternative fuel prices on shipping transition are highly time-varying, and major policy events significantly amplify the influence of price signals on transition investment decisions. The paper provides new methodological and empirical evidence to support the advancement of the transition to green shipping.