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<p>This paper quantifies how shocks at strategic maritime chokepoints propagate into vessel traffic, capacity, and route choice, and when apparently temporary disruptions become persistent through port‑congestion hysteresis. Using high-frequency PortWatch IMF data, this study analyzes 70,728 observations across eight major chokepoints spanning 2019–2025, covering three structurally distinct disruptions: the COVID-19 demand shock, the Ever Given–induced Suez blockage, and the Red Sea security crisis. Our empirical strategy combines difference-in-differences (with event-study dynamics), interrupted time-series segmented regression for recovery trajectories, and state-dependent interaction models that allow treatment effects to vary with pre-shock capacity utilisation and vessel composition. Results indicate sharp heterogeneity by shock type and cargo: COVID-19 reduced daily chokepoint-level traffic by 16.5% and capacity by 15.9%, with container flows falling 2.8 × more than dry bulk. The Suez blockage generated a sizeable but short-lived decline (≈ 7.2%) with limited persistence; and the Red Sea crisis produced a sustained contraction (≈ 3.1%) alongside route substitution. Crucially, highly utilised chokepoints recover materially more slowly (≈ 73% longer recovery windows), implying partial hysteresis, with aggregate traffic in 2024–2025 remaining below 2019 baselines. Policy implications are direct: resilience hinges on maintaining controlled redundant capacity at congested hubs, developing commercially viable substitute corridors, and embedding utilisation-triggered contingency protocols into maritime governance.</p>

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Shock propagation and port-congestion hysteresis in maritime disruptions: evidence from COVID-19, the Suez blockage, and the Red Sea crisis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月6日

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  • Avik Ghosh,
  • Suman Sourav

摘要

This paper quantifies how shocks at strategic maritime chokepoints propagate into vessel traffic, capacity, and route choice, and when apparently temporary disruptions become persistent through port‑congestion hysteresis. Using high-frequency PortWatch IMF data, this study analyzes 70,728 observations across eight major chokepoints spanning 2019–2025, covering three structurally distinct disruptions: the COVID-19 demand shock, the Ever Given–induced Suez blockage, and the Red Sea security crisis. Our empirical strategy combines difference-in-differences (with event-study dynamics), interrupted time-series segmented regression for recovery trajectories, and state-dependent interaction models that allow treatment effects to vary with pre-shock capacity utilisation and vessel composition. Results indicate sharp heterogeneity by shock type and cargo: COVID-19 reduced daily chokepoint-level traffic by 16.5% and capacity by 15.9%, with container flows falling 2.8 × more than dry bulk. The Suez blockage generated a sizeable but short-lived decline (≈ 7.2%) with limited persistence; and the Red Sea crisis produced a sustained contraction (≈ 3.1%) alongside route substitution. Crucially, highly utilised chokepoints recover materially more slowly (≈ 73% longer recovery windows), implying partial hysteresis, with aggregate traffic in 2024–2025 remaining below 2019 baselines. Policy implications are direct: resilience hinges on maintaining controlled redundant capacity at congested hubs, developing commercially viable substitute corridors, and embedding utilisation-triggered contingency protocols into maritime governance.