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<p>The container shipping industry, characterized by high volatility and uncertainty in freight markets, requires shipping companies to adopt flexible and responsive operational fleet strategies. Vessel idling—temporarily withdrawing ships from active operation while keeping them technically available—is a key practice, yet the determinants underlying its application in today’s volatile environment are not yet fully understood. This study investigates the determinants of vessel idle duration, measured as monthly idle days per vessel. Using a panel dataset of over 19,544 vessel-month observations from January 2022 to December 2024, a Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial (ZTNB) model examines how vessel-specific characteristics, company-level factors, and market conditions influence idle decisions. Results show older vessels endure longer idling, while larger vessels and those in bigger fleets are idled for shorter durations, reflecting a more strategic use of this practice. Market factors such as freight rates and supply-demand balance significantly affect idle duration. These findings offer a data-driven perspective on short-term capacity management and practical insights for improving fleet deployment strategies, such as optimizing vessel reactivation timing and fleet composition during market downturns.</p>

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Exploring the drivers of ship idling decisions in container shipping: a Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Lixian Fan,
  • Le Wu,
  • Shaohan Wang,
  • Xinxin Liu

摘要

The container shipping industry, characterized by high volatility and uncertainty in freight markets, requires shipping companies to adopt flexible and responsive operational fleet strategies. Vessel idling—temporarily withdrawing ships from active operation while keeping them technically available—is a key practice, yet the determinants underlying its application in today’s volatile environment are not yet fully understood. This study investigates the determinants of vessel idle duration, measured as monthly idle days per vessel. Using a panel dataset of over 19,544 vessel-month observations from January 2022 to December 2024, a Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial (ZTNB) model examines how vessel-specific characteristics, company-level factors, and market conditions influence idle decisions. Results show older vessels endure longer idling, while larger vessels and those in bigger fleets are idled for shorter durations, reflecting a more strategic use of this practice. Market factors such as freight rates and supply-demand balance significantly affect idle duration. These findings offer a data-driven perspective on short-term capacity management and practical insights for improving fleet deployment strategies, such as optimizing vessel reactivation timing and fleet composition during market downturns.