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<p>The Red River is one of the last major U.S. inland rivers that remains only partially developed for navigation. Completing the remaining stages is an active federal policy question with implications for freight efficiency, regional economic development, and capital investment in maritime infrastructure. This paper estimates the potential freight mode reallocation associated with Red River navigation in 2045. We leverage the fully developed Arkansas River as a natural benchmark and use its current inbound freight mix to Louisiana—specifically the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) region “Remainder of Louisiana”to simulate mode share outcomes for Dallas/Fort Worth freight flows in 2045 under a completed Red River navigation scenario. The Arkansas and Red River systems provide a valid comparative structure given their proximity, overlapping commodity portfolios, and similar agricultural client bases. Our results indicate substantial modal reallocation potential away from trucking. Examples of products affected include natural sand and gravel, logs and wood products, agricultural products, non-metallic mineral products, and motorized vehicles. These findings demonstrate a material mode shift potential into the inland waterway system, consistent with the intent of the Marine Highways Act, and provide empirical evidence for Congressional and agency decision-making regarding the remaining stages of Red River development.</p>

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Should the red river be developed: examining this policy question through a bayesian hierarchical model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月15日

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  • Gary Stading,
  • Maryam Kheirandish,
  • Fred Norton

摘要

The Red River is one of the last major U.S. inland rivers that remains only partially developed for navigation. Completing the remaining stages is an active federal policy question with implications for freight efficiency, regional economic development, and capital investment in maritime infrastructure. This paper estimates the potential freight mode reallocation associated with Red River navigation in 2045. We leverage the fully developed Arkansas River as a natural benchmark and use its current inbound freight mix to Louisiana—specifically the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) region “Remainder of Louisiana”to simulate mode share outcomes for Dallas/Fort Worth freight flows in 2045 under a completed Red River navigation scenario. The Arkansas and Red River systems provide a valid comparative structure given their proximity, overlapping commodity portfolios, and similar agricultural client bases. Our results indicate substantial modal reallocation potential away from trucking. Examples of products affected include natural sand and gravel, logs and wood products, agricultural products, non-metallic mineral products, and motorized vehicles. These findings demonstrate a material mode shift potential into the inland waterway system, consistent with the intent of the Marine Highways Act, and provide empirical evidence for Congressional and agency decision-making regarding the remaining stages of Red River development.