Economic perceptions and government approval in Chile: An analysis of democratic transition (1990–2022)

A broad literature in the field of political science is dedicated to clarifying the link between economic variables and public opinion on the current government. In this study, we undertake a microanalysis using individual-level data to evaluate the relationship between economic perceptions and government approval in Chile, a transitional democracy. Unlike the previous research on new or transitional democracies, our analysis spans approximately 30 years (1990–2022), capturing significant events and stages of the democratization process. Utilizing data from the CEP survey, we find that Chileans, on average, prioritize the national economy over their own economic circumstances when evaluating government performance. In addition, our study suggests that following a major constitutional reform that eradicated key vestiges of the dictatorship, the impact of the country’s economic perceptions on government approval experiences a notable decline. This suggests that conclusions about popularity functions in new or transitional democracies can change depending on period analyzed, especially during significant institutional changes in democratic consolidation.