Authoritarian personalism, institutional constraints, and plebiscitary rule

This article explores the phenomenon of plebiscitary rule in authoritarian regimes: the institutionalisation and frequent use of referendums controlled by the executive. This specific trait of dictatorships has not been systematically explored in quantitative comparative politics. Our analysis focusses on the combined effect of autocratic personalism and regime institutionalised pluralism. The puzzle of plebiscitary rule is that it emerges at the intersection of these seemingly contradictory forces. We propose that plebiscitary rule counterbalances obstruction from the legislative and other constitutional actors, contributing to the feasibility of personalist rule in electoral authoritarianism. We provide quantitative evidence based on every post-1945 autocratic regime that is compatible with our expectations.