Socioeconomic anxieties and electoral polarization: insights from Belgian federal elections at the municipal level

Polarization is increasingly seen as a phenomenon with far reaching and precarious consequences that extend beyond politics. Despite the extensive attention polarization has received, two crucial aspects of this phenomenon remain relatively understudied: electoral polarization and its socioeconomic drivers. We argue that socioeconomic anxieties—the fear of losing one’s social position due to economic insecurity—play an important role in driving electoral polarization. To measure the level of electoral polarization, we develop an intuitive metric based on the dyadic ideological distance between voters. Using elections data from federal elections in Belgium, we study the electoral outcomes of the 300 Flemish municipalities, where we find a significant link between risk of poverty, income, and unemployment, on the one hand, and the level of electoral polarization on the other. This provides empirical support to our overarching hypothesis that socioeconomic anxiety plays a centrifugal electoral impact, amplifying the appeal of polar parties, thereby increasing the level of electoral polarization.