National or partisan representation: do politicians’ perceptions of the opinions of these voter groups depend on party characteristics?

Research shows that political parties are not equally responsive to the general public opinion and to their party voters’ preferences. This study aims to explore this discrepancy in the context of politicians’ perceptions of public opinion, recognising that the knowledge that politicians possess about public opinion is an important route for political representation. Are politicians better at perceiving the public opinion or their party voters’ opinion? Departing from the approach of examining only one type of perception, this research investigates why some politicians have a more national-oriented pattern of perception, while others adopt a party-oriented pattern. Drawing on the literature on party responsiveness, this study develops and tests hypotheses regarding the role of party characteristics. Using survey data survey data from Belgium and Germany, the analysis reveals that, overall, party characteristics have a limited impact on MPs’ perceptions of public opinion. However, a notable exception is intra-party democracy, which increases of politicians’ propensity to better perceive the opinions of their own party voters compared to those of the general public.