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<p>In recent decades, China has emerged as the leading non-traditional donor in the global aid landscape. While Western foreign aid’s political impact has been widely studied, little research exists on Chinese aid and recipient leader survival. This paper studies how Chinese aid influences political survival and how the effect varies across regime types. I argue that recipient leaders use aid to distribute public/private goods and claim credit for large Chinese aid-sponsored infrastructure projects. However, unlike private goods, public goods distributed in democracies garner lower levels of loyalty and credit attribution. Accordingly, Chinese aid can promote political survival, and the likelihood is greater in non-democracies than in democracies. Empirical analyses using time-series cross-section data for 121 recipient states suggest that Chinese aid is positively associated with the likelihood of incumbent survival. Results also demonstrate that Chinese aid can extend leadership tenures in non-democracies, while not affecting leader survival in democracies.</p>

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Staying in power: Chinese foreign aid and leader turnover across regime types

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月25日

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  • Muhammad Al Amin

摘要

In recent decades, China has emerged as the leading non-traditional donor in the global aid landscape. While Western foreign aid’s political impact has been widely studied, little research exists on Chinese aid and recipient leader survival. This paper studies how Chinese aid influences political survival and how the effect varies across regime types. I argue that recipient leaders use aid to distribute public/private goods and claim credit for large Chinese aid-sponsored infrastructure projects. However, unlike private goods, public goods distributed in democracies garner lower levels of loyalty and credit attribution. Accordingly, Chinese aid can promote political survival, and the likelihood is greater in non-democracies than in democracies. Empirical analyses using time-series cross-section data for 121 recipient states suggest that Chinese aid is positively associated with the likelihood of incumbent survival. Results also demonstrate that Chinese aid can extend leadership tenures in non-democracies, while not affecting leader survival in democracies.