Advancing bank stability assessment: a SPRAF-enhanced Z-score framework for volatile markets (evidence from Myanmar’s banking sector)
摘要
Sustainable bank performance requires ongoing assessment of the risk and financial stability of the banks. A number of techniques have been introduced as an effort to advance this area. However, none of the techniques appear to be perfect as they fail to take a forward-looking approach in risk management, in particular during the times of institutional upheavals. Therefore, this study advocates a novel approach, i.e., SPRAF-enhanced Z-score framework, to analyze bank risk and long-term sustainable financial stability, using Myanmar as a case study. This approach offers insights into the predictions on the nature of short-term vulnerabilities of banks while ensuring to recognize their long-term resilience in structural financial mechanisms. By analyzing financial data from six banks during a period marked by sociopolitical upheaval (2018 to 2023), the findings provide sustainability-focused insights for policymakers and practitioners to strengthen banking stability over time. Adding sociopolitical factors as complex contexts makes the Z-score model stronger and gives us a more complete picture of how structural weaknesses affect things like profitability, leverage, and capital sufficiency. The results show that the amount of risk will change a lot over time, as shown by Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). This means that banks should use this useful method in their current risk assessment processes to help the conversation about financial resilience and give the world more information on how to keep banks stable when things are unstable.