<p>We study the behavioral aspects of the formation of inflation expectations among US consumers from a novel perspective, namely, by testing how other macroeconomic expectations formed by individuals affect their inflation predictions. We also draw conclusions regarding the role of their dispositions and attitudes as well as subjective heuristics. Our results suggest that expectations regarding various macroeconomic variables, including expected developments in fiscal policy, are important drivers of consumer inflation expectations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that psychological factors play a role in the formation of consumer inflation expectations. First, in assessing the relationship between expected unemployment and inflation, consumers follow a ‘good-begets-good heuristic’. Second, their optimism, as proxied by health self-assessments and the willingness to take financial risk, affects survey expectations and contributes to the explanation of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of inflation expectations. After considering the above factors, consumers largely appear forward-looking; moreover, the dependence of their inflation expectations on socio-demographic features is substantially diminished.</p>

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Macroeconomic expectations, psychological heuristics, and the formation of consumer inflation expectations

  • Małgorzata Kalbarczyk,
  • Tomasz Łyziak,
  • Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak

摘要

We study the behavioral aspects of the formation of inflation expectations among US consumers from a novel perspective, namely, by testing how other macroeconomic expectations formed by individuals affect their inflation predictions. We also draw conclusions regarding the role of their dispositions and attitudes as well as subjective heuristics. Our results suggest that expectations regarding various macroeconomic variables, including expected developments in fiscal policy, are important drivers of consumer inflation expectations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that psychological factors play a role in the formation of consumer inflation expectations. First, in assessing the relationship between expected unemployment and inflation, consumers follow a ‘good-begets-good heuristic’. Second, their optimism, as proxied by health self-assessments and the willingness to take financial risk, affects survey expectations and contributes to the explanation of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of inflation expectations. After considering the above factors, consumers largely appear forward-looking; moreover, the dependence of their inflation expectations on socio-demographic features is substantially diminished.