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<p>Panelists discussed the outlook for the federal budget. Over the next 10&#xa0;years, the deficit&#xa0;is going to be about double what it was on average for the last 50&#xa0;years. Even if AI leads to substantially higher growth, the deficit will remain extraordinarily large—and faster growth would likely spur higher levels of entitlements. There are options for bringing debt and deficits under control prior to a financial crisis, but policymakers will need to make hard decisions.</p>

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Whither the federal budget?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月1日

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  • Karen Dynan,
  • Kent Smetters,
  • Ellen Zentner

摘要

Panelists discussed the outlook for the federal budget. Over the next 10 years, the deficit is going to be about double what it was on average for the last 50 years. Even if AI leads to substantially higher growth, the deficit will remain extraordinarily large—and faster growth would likely spur higher levels of entitlements. There are options for bringing debt and deficits under control prior to a financial crisis, but policymakers will need to make hard decisions.