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<p>This study introduces a comprehensive framework that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions to assess the health of the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market. We construct regional indices for each of the four major CRE subsectors (multifamily, office, retail, and industrial) across the 60 largest regional markets by asset value, as well as at the national level, to capture heterogeneous market dynamics. Additionally, we estimate four-quarter-ahead probabilities for three distinct growth scenarios: trend-like, below-trend, and above-trend growth, for each market. A key contribution of this work is the empirical demonstration of spatial heterogeneity in CRE market performance. By incorporating real-time macroeconomic data, the framework offers actionable insights for market participants and policymakers seeking to monitor and respond to evolving market conditions.</p>

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Predicting the state of commercial real estate: Up, down, or uncertain?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月1日

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  • Ali Hajibeigi,
  • Delaney Conner,
  • Azhar Iqbal

摘要

This study introduces a comprehensive framework that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions to assess the health of the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market. We construct regional indices for each of the four major CRE subsectors (multifamily, office, retail, and industrial) across the 60 largest regional markets by asset value, as well as at the national level, to capture heterogeneous market dynamics. Additionally, we estimate four-quarter-ahead probabilities for three distinct growth scenarios: trend-like, below-trend, and above-trend growth, for each market. A key contribution of this work is the empirical demonstration of spatial heterogeneity in CRE market performance. By incorporating real-time macroeconomic data, the framework offers actionable insights for market participants and policymakers seeking to monitor and respond to evolving market conditions.