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<p>Global warming and electric heat pump adoption will, together, likely have a complex effect on energy burdens in the United States. Here, for 10,000 representative buildings in 28 U.S. cities, we estimate the distribution of monthly and annual energy burdens for every combination of current and future (electrified) heating and cooling systems, and the historical and future climates. In cold climates, the combined effect of electrification and warming could help reduce energy burdens, while heat pump adoption alone would raise them. In very cold cities, the energy bills in January could exceed income, a phenomenon that warming will only partially blunt. In Detroit in January, heat pump adoption would produce a 2 percentage point increase in energy burden compared to natural gas heating, but would reduce energy burdens by 8 percentage points for homes that use resistance electric heating. Decision-makers should carefully target information and incentives for heat pump adoption.</p>

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Efficient electrification in a warming climate could contribute to keeping energy burdens in check

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月25日

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  • Ming Yi,
  • Shuhaib Nawawi,
  • Parth Vaishnav

摘要

Global warming and electric heat pump adoption will, together, likely have a complex effect on energy burdens in the United States. Here, for 10,000 representative buildings in 28 U.S. cities, we estimate the distribution of monthly and annual energy burdens for every combination of current and future (electrified) heating and cooling systems, and the historical and future climates. In cold climates, the combined effect of electrification and warming could help reduce energy burdens, while heat pump adoption alone would raise them. In very cold cities, the energy bills in January could exceed income, a phenomenon that warming will only partially blunt. In Detroit in January, heat pump adoption would produce a 2 percentage point increase in energy burden compared to natural gas heating, but would reduce energy burdens by 8 percentage points for homes that use resistance electric heating. Decision-makers should carefully target information and incentives for heat pump adoption.