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<p>This study investigates the dynamics of uncontrolled Low-Earth Orbit Decaying Objects (LEODOs) using a high-fidelity simulation framework that incorporates real-time atmospheric winds (NRLMSISE-00), variable drag from wind-relative motion, Coriolis effects, and Earth’s geopotential up to the sixth zonal harmonic (<i>J</i><sub>6</sub>). Unlike previous models, our approach resolves fine-scale thresholds in reentry behavior. We identify a narrow transition regime near escape velocity (e.g., 10.5 km/s), where small changes in elevation angle (Δ<i>γ</i> ~ 0.1°) produce distinct outcomes: impact, atmospheric skipping, or orbital retention. For azimuths of 135° and 315°, the reentry threshold is <i>γ</i> = −2. 9°. In some cases, impact occurs in under 10 min, within the uncertainty margins of current forecast systems. These findings reveal limitations in deterministic reentry prediction models and support the need for probabilistic approaches to account for trajectory sensitivity. The results have implications for forecasting, space safety, and international response planning.</p>

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Uncontrolled reentry of Low Earth Orbit Decaying Objects: a hidden threat to global safety and legal frameworks

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月1日

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  • Richard O. Ocaya,
  • Thembinkosi D. Malevu

摘要

This study investigates the dynamics of uncontrolled Low-Earth Orbit Decaying Objects (LEODOs) using a high-fidelity simulation framework that incorporates real-time atmospheric winds (NRLMSISE-00), variable drag from wind-relative motion, Coriolis effects, and Earth’s geopotential up to the sixth zonal harmonic (J6). Unlike previous models, our approach resolves fine-scale thresholds in reentry behavior. We identify a narrow transition regime near escape velocity (e.g., 10.5 km/s), where small changes in elevation angle (Δγ ~ 0.1°) produce distinct outcomes: impact, atmospheric skipping, or orbital retention. For azimuths of 135° and 315°, the reentry threshold is γ = −2. 9°. In some cases, impact occurs in under 10 min, within the uncertainty margins of current forecast systems. These findings reveal limitations in deterministic reentry prediction models and support the need for probabilistic approaches to account for trajectory sensitivity. The results have implications for forecasting, space safety, and international response planning.