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<p>The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 initially appeared to pose a non-negligible collision threat on Earth. This brief communication analyzes its collision risk, beginning with comparing orbit determination results from multiple sources. We examine how observation arc length and the Yarkovsky effect influence impact probability estimates. Finally, we propose incorporating population distribution into the risk assessment to improve its practical relevance.</p>

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Collision probability analysis of 2024 YR4

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月6日

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  • Xin Liu,
  • Xiyun Hou,
  • Haowen Cheng

摘要

The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 initially appeared to pose a non-negligible collision threat on Earth. This brief communication analyzes its collision risk, beginning with comparing orbit determination results from multiple sources. We examine how observation arc length and the Yarkovsky effect influence impact probability estimates. Finally, we propose incorporating population distribution into the risk assessment to improve its practical relevance.