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<p>The current trajectory of emissions will increase warming and deteriorate air quality in India, leading to severe health and economic impacts. We comparatively assess ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related health and economic consequences for mid-century under GAINS-simulated business-as-usual (BAU) pathway, which considers current emissions, policies, and mitigation measures will resume in future; and 2°C warming scenario (2°C-WS) that may restrict the warming upto 2°C by 2100. Ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure would change from 14.6–126.4 μg m<sup>−3</sup> in baseline across India to 13–136.1 μg m<sup>−3</sup> under BAU pathway, but to reduce between 7.4 and 84.4 μg m<sup>−3</sup> under 2°C-WS. Projecting socio-demographic determinants, we estimate that the 2°C-WS driven control measures could prevent 0.77 ± 0.19 million annual premature deaths and 18.7 ± 4.3 million DALYs by mid-century, benefiting 18.9 ± 2.8 billion Euros. Emission controls in the domestic, energy, and waste sectors would be pivotal. Here, we show that India should accelerate climate actions to meet 2°C target and align clean-air and health policies for substantial health benefits.</p>

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Air pollution health and economic co-benefits of keeping warming below 2 °C in India

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • Debajit Sarkar,
  • Fahad Imam,
  • Alok Kumar,
  • Pallav Purohit,
  • Gregor Kiesewetter,
  • Zbigniew Klimont,
  • Sourangsu Chowdhury,
  • Andrea Pozzer,
  • Sagnik Dey

摘要

The current trajectory of emissions will increase warming and deteriorate air quality in India, leading to severe health and economic impacts. We comparatively assess ambient PM2.5-related health and economic consequences for mid-century under GAINS-simulated business-as-usual (BAU) pathway, which considers current emissions, policies, and mitigation measures will resume in future; and 2°C warming scenario (2°C-WS) that may restrict the warming upto 2°C by 2100. Ambient PM2.5 exposure would change from 14.6–126.4 μg m−3 in baseline across India to 13–136.1 μg m−3 under BAU pathway, but to reduce between 7.4 and 84.4 μg m−3 under 2°C-WS. Projecting socio-demographic determinants, we estimate that the 2°C-WS driven control measures could prevent 0.77 ± 0.19 million annual premature deaths and 18.7 ± 4.3 million DALYs by mid-century, benefiting 18.9 ± 2.8 billion Euros. Emission controls in the domestic, energy, and waste sectors would be pivotal. Here, we show that India should accelerate climate actions to meet 2°C target and align clean-air and health policies for substantial health benefits.