<p>Africa’s regional power pools promise to expand electricity access and enhance supply reliability for approximately 600 million people currently without electricity by geographically diversifying solar generation. This strategy assumes that extreme weather affecting photovoltaic output remains uncorrelated across countries. Here, we quantify synchronized photovoltaic low-output events—days on which countries representing half or more of the pool’s projected solar capacity simultaneously experience low output—across all five African power pools using bias-validated (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections (1980–2100) under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios, validated against WFDE5 observational data and decomposed into radiative and thermal drivers. Using solar-specific synchronization metrics, we identify a three-tier vulnerability hierarchy: in the ensemble-mean projections, West African Power Pool and Central African Power Pool exhibit more than 100 synchronized low-PV days annually under SSP5-8.5; the Eastern African Power Pool experiences substantial increases, while the Southern African Power Pool suggests structural resilience through its latitudinal extent. Thermal degradation universally intensifies extremes, while radiation-driven changes either compound or partially offset this effect, depending on the region. Our analysis highlights transmission corridors associated with relatively high synchronization exposure where solar-specific extremes exhibit high spatial correlation, providing solar resource inputs to integrated power systems planning alongside complementary assessments of wind, hydro, and other resources.</p>

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Climate-driven synchronization of solar extremes threatens the resilience of Africa’s regional power pool

  • Paul Adigun,
  • Koji Dairaku,
  • Akinwale T. Ogunrinde,
  • Xian Xue

摘要

Africa’s regional power pools promise to expand electricity access and enhance supply reliability for approximately 600 million people currently without electricity by geographically diversifying solar generation. This strategy assumes that extreme weather affecting photovoltaic output remains uncorrelated across countries. Here, we quantify synchronized photovoltaic low-output events—days on which countries representing half or more of the pool’s projected solar capacity simultaneously experience low output—across all five African power pools using bias-validated (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections (1980–2100) under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios, validated against WFDE5 observational data and decomposed into radiative and thermal drivers. Using solar-specific synchronization metrics, we identify a three-tier vulnerability hierarchy: in the ensemble-mean projections, West African Power Pool and Central African Power Pool exhibit more than 100 synchronized low-PV days annually under SSP5-8.5; the Eastern African Power Pool experiences substantial increases, while the Southern African Power Pool suggests structural resilience through its latitudinal extent. Thermal degradation universally intensifies extremes, while radiation-driven changes either compound or partially offset this effect, depending on the region. Our analysis highlights transmission corridors associated with relatively high synchronization exposure where solar-specific extremes exhibit high spatial correlation, providing solar resource inputs to integrated power systems planning alongside complementary assessments of wind, hydro, and other resources.