Association of public health and social measures with vaccine effectiveness
摘要
Public health and social measures (PHSMs) may influence observed vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. We hypothesized that VE estimates would be lower in settings with relaxed PHSMs. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 70 test-negative design studies reporting VE against infection (including any positive test result or test-confirmed symptomatic COVID-19) or severe disease (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission or death). PHSM intensity was measured using Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker indices, including the Stringency Index (SI). Based on 1,273 VE estimates, pooled VE against infection was significantly higher in settings with higher index values (lower exposure intensity): 82% (95% CI = 80–83%) in high-SI settings versus 46% (95% CI = 41–50%) in low-SI settings. Similar patterns appeared for other indices and severe disease outcomes. These associations persisted in meta-regression models adjusting for viral variant, vaccine type, time since vaccination, previous infection status, enrolment criteria and calendar time. Correlation analyses showed moderate-to-strong positive correlations between VE estimates and index values (Spearman’s correlation = 0.31–0.57). These findings indicate that VE estimates are significantly associated with PHSM intensity and may not generalize across settings with different restriction levels, highlighting the need to account for policy context when interpreting vaccine performance.