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<p>Digestive tract diseases and neoplasms (DTDNs) constitute a major global health burden with poorly quantified economic impact. Here, using health-augmented macroeconomic modelling across 190 countries (2020–2050), we estimated DTDNs’ economic burden by comparing scenarios with and without complete disease eradication, incorporating educational heterogeneity, workforce participation variations and treatment cost impacts on capital accumulation. DTDNs will impose a US$26.1 trillion global economic burden, equivalent to 0.65% annual Gross Domestic Product tax. Cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases contribute the largest share (30.2%), followed by colorectal cancer (11.6%), gallbladder diseases (8.8%), stomach cancer (7.3%) and hernias (6.7%). China (US$8.6 trillion) and the USA (US$4.0 trillion) experience the largest absolute impacts. Upper-middle-income countries bear 46.2% of economic consequences. Disease patterns shift from infection-related to lifestyle-related conditions as income levels rise. Physical capital losses constitute 76% of burden in high-income countries versus 1% in low-income countries. The substantial and unevenly distributed global economic burden of DTDNs, particularly liver diseases, warrants targeted prevention strategies that could yield significant economic returns globally.</p>

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The global economic burden of digestive tract diseases and cancers from 2020 to 2050

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月15日

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  • Xiaojie Huang,
  • Qingwei Zhang,
  • Haoliang Cui,
  • Zeyu Li,
  • Jianyi Zhang,
  • Yiming Song,
  • Jingjing Chen,
  • Guifen Chen,
  • Xiaolu Lin,
  • Xiaobo Li,
  • Wanyin Deng

摘要

Digestive tract diseases and neoplasms (DTDNs) constitute a major global health burden with poorly quantified economic impact. Here, using health-augmented macroeconomic modelling across 190 countries (2020–2050), we estimated DTDNs’ economic burden by comparing scenarios with and without complete disease eradication, incorporating educational heterogeneity, workforce participation variations and treatment cost impacts on capital accumulation. DTDNs will impose a US$26.1 trillion global economic burden, equivalent to 0.65% annual Gross Domestic Product tax. Cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases contribute the largest share (30.2%), followed by colorectal cancer (11.6%), gallbladder diseases (8.8%), stomach cancer (7.3%) and hernias (6.7%). China (US$8.6 trillion) and the USA (US$4.0 trillion) experience the largest absolute impacts. Upper-middle-income countries bear 46.2% of economic consequences. Disease patterns shift from infection-related to lifestyle-related conditions as income levels rise. Physical capital losses constitute 76% of burden in high-income countries versus 1% in low-income countries. The substantial and unevenly distributed global economic burden of DTDNs, particularly liver diseases, warrants targeted prevention strategies that could yield significant economic returns globally.