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<p>Although heat exposure has been associated with higher gestational diabetes (GD) risk, few studies have employed statistical approaches that estimate the cumulative risk of multi-day exposure, and socioeconomic disparities of heat-related GD remain unexplored. We conducted a time-series study in the Barcelona metropolitan area to evaluate the association between cumulative temperature exposure and GD risk. Temperature data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia were linked to the Information System for Research in Primary Care, with 8,796 GD cases registered between 2011 and 2022. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to estimate 30-day temperature effects on GD risk, and models were stratified by neighbourhood deprivation index. Cumulative exposure to high temperatures was associated with a twofold increased risk of GD. Individuals living in the most socioeconomically deprived areas showed higher heat-related GD risk. Given the projected increase in urban temperatures across the Mediterranean region, the health consequences of GD and the observed social disparities, public health policies that prioritize equity and climate resilience are needed to protect pregnant populations.</p>

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Cumulative daily exposure to high temperature increases gestational diabetes risk

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月5日

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  • Laura Granés,
  • Anna Palomar-Cros,
  • Albert Espiell,
  • Elena Roel,
  • Elisa Gallo,
  • Xavier Basagaña,
  • Joan Ballester,
  • Andrea Pistillo,
  • Talita Duarte-Salles

摘要

Although heat exposure has been associated with higher gestational diabetes (GD) risk, few studies have employed statistical approaches that estimate the cumulative risk of multi-day exposure, and socioeconomic disparities of heat-related GD remain unexplored. We conducted a time-series study in the Barcelona metropolitan area to evaluate the association between cumulative temperature exposure and GD risk. Temperature data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia were linked to the Information System for Research in Primary Care, with 8,796 GD cases registered between 2011 and 2022. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to estimate 30-day temperature effects on GD risk, and models were stratified by neighbourhood deprivation index. Cumulative exposure to high temperatures was associated with a twofold increased risk of GD. Individuals living in the most socioeconomically deprived areas showed higher heat-related GD risk. Given the projected increase in urban temperatures across the Mediterranean region, the health consequences of GD and the observed social disparities, public health policies that prioritize equity and climate resilience are needed to protect pregnant populations.