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<p>Oropouche virus (OROV) is a neglected arbovirus that has caused outbreaks in Central and South America since the 1950s. Here we investigate the ecological and demographic determinants of Oropouche fever in Brazil between 2014 and 2025. During this period, 30,086 laboratory-confirmed Oropouche fever cases were reported across 894 (16.1%) of 5,570 municipalities in all 26 states and the Federal District. Of the confirmed cases, 14,651 (48.7%) were female and 15,422 (51.3%) were male. The cumulative incidence of Oropouche fever cases in rural municipalities was 11.3 times higher than in urban municipalities between 2014 and 2025. OROV exhibited a median urban-to-rural case ratio of 0.6, while dengue, chikungunya and Zika ratios range from 2.5 to 2.8. OROV transmission fluctuated in the North Region before its 2024 geographic expansion, with transmission peaks (<i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub>) ranging from 3.2 to 5.5. Our risk maps revealed significant heterogeneity in OROV risk across Brazil, driven by the interactions among demographic, climatic and environmental conditions. Our findings provide a comprehensive assessment of the ecological and demographic characteristics of Oropouche fever in Brazil and improve the understanding of its transmission dynamics.</p>

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Ecological and demographic drivers of Oropouche virus transmission

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月24日

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  • Xinyi Hua,
  • Laura W. Alexander,
  • Ingra M. Claro,
  • Yucai Shao,
  • Ronaldo de Jesus,
  • Shirlene T. S. de Lima,
  • Paulo C. Ventura,
  • Rodrigo B. Kato,
  • Marco Ajelli,
  • André B. B. Wilke,
  • Marc A. Suchard,
  • Nuno R. Faria,
  • José Luiz Proenca-Modena,
  • Laura B. Dickson,
  • Ana I. Bento,
  • William M. de Souza

摘要

Oropouche virus (OROV) is a neglected arbovirus that has caused outbreaks in Central and South America since the 1950s. Here we investigate the ecological and demographic determinants of Oropouche fever in Brazil between 2014 and 2025. During this period, 30,086 laboratory-confirmed Oropouche fever cases were reported across 894 (16.1%) of 5,570 municipalities in all 26 states and the Federal District. Of the confirmed cases, 14,651 (48.7%) were female and 15,422 (51.3%) were male. The cumulative incidence of Oropouche fever cases in rural municipalities was 11.3 times higher than in urban municipalities between 2014 and 2025. OROV exhibited a median urban-to-rural case ratio of 0.6, while dengue, chikungunya and Zika ratios range from 2.5 to 2.8. OROV transmission fluctuated in the North Region before its 2024 geographic expansion, with transmission peaks (Rt) ranging from 3.2 to 5.5. Our risk maps revealed significant heterogeneity in OROV risk across Brazil, driven by the interactions among demographic, climatic and environmental conditions. Our findings provide a comprehensive assessment of the ecological and demographic characteristics of Oropouche fever in Brazil and improve the understanding of its transmission dynamics.