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<p>The Indian Ocean region, particularly the Indonesian archipelago, represents one of the most high-risk tsunami zones globally. Historical records indicate that the southern coast of Java is subject to recurrent seismic and tsunami events driven by the Sunda Megathrust activity. This study quantifies tsunami escape potential by integrating hazard timing, spatial constraints, and community evacuation behavior in Panggarangan, a coastal village in Banten, Indonesia. Tsunami arrival times and inundation characteristics were derived from BMKG megathrust scenarios to define the Available Evacuation Time. High-resolution topographic data and GIS-based network analysis were employed to estimate optimal evacuation trajectories and Required Travel Times to designated Temporary Evacuation Sites (TES). These quantitative spatial analyses were synthesized with longitudinal field-based ethnographic observations conducted between 2022 and 2025. Results indicate that compressed arrival windows (approximately 12–15 minutes), when compounded by topographic friction and behavioral latency (such as social confirmation and asset protection), substantially diminish evacuation feasibility. This research advances tsunami risk assessment by operationalizing evacuation capacity as a socio-spatial outcome, offering a more nuanced framework for near-field tsunami mitigation in under-researched coastal contexts.</p>

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Integrating social and spatial dimensions in tsunami evacuation modeling: a case study of Panggarangan coast, Indonesia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Ni Nyoman Era Jumantini,
  • I. Nyoman Putera Indrawan,
  • Admiral Musa Julius

摘要

The Indian Ocean region, particularly the Indonesian archipelago, represents one of the most high-risk tsunami zones globally. Historical records indicate that the southern coast of Java is subject to recurrent seismic and tsunami events driven by the Sunda Megathrust activity. This study quantifies tsunami escape potential by integrating hazard timing, spatial constraints, and community evacuation behavior in Panggarangan, a coastal village in Banten, Indonesia. Tsunami arrival times and inundation characteristics were derived from BMKG megathrust scenarios to define the Available Evacuation Time. High-resolution topographic data and GIS-based network analysis were employed to estimate optimal evacuation trajectories and Required Travel Times to designated Temporary Evacuation Sites (TES). These quantitative spatial analyses were synthesized with longitudinal field-based ethnographic observations conducted between 2022 and 2025. Results indicate that compressed arrival windows (approximately 12–15 minutes), when compounded by topographic friction and behavioral latency (such as social confirmation and asset protection), substantially diminish evacuation feasibility. This research advances tsunami risk assessment by operationalizing evacuation capacity as a socio-spatial outcome, offering a more nuanced framework for near-field tsunami mitigation in under-researched coastal contexts.