<p>High sub-daily intensity of extreme precipitation events in southern Norway causes landslides, debris flows, and infrastructure damage, affecting safety. Using a climate storyline approach and convection-permitting regional climate modeling, we investigate how recent rainfall extremes Gyda (12–14 January 2022), Hans (7–9 August 2023), and Bø (21–22 July 2024), could have developed under +2 K and +4 K regional warming levels and in a colder (−2 K) past climate. The average change in precipitation intensity per degree of warming for the entire events of Gyda, Hans, and Bø is 3.9 ± 0.4% K<sup>−1</sup>, 9 ± 1% K<sup>−1</sup>, and 19 ± 4% K<sup>−1</sup>, while the change in maximum 1-hour intensity is 10 ± 0.7% K<sup>−1</sup>, 15 ± 2% K<sup>−1</sup>, and 30 ± 8% K<sup>−1</sup>, respectively, indicating intensification exceeding the rate expected from atmospheric moisture scaling alone (~7% K<sup>−1</sup>). Additionally, the area extent affected by heavy precipitation of all events substantially increases with warming. Overall, extreme precipitation responses to warming depend on event-specific atmospheric processes.</p>

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Rapid intensification of recent extreme precipitation events in southern Norway under warmer climate conditions

  • Iris Mužić,
  • Øivind Hodnebrog,
  • Gunnar Myhre,
  • Jana Sillmann,
  • Camilla Weum Stjern

摘要

High sub-daily intensity of extreme precipitation events in southern Norway causes landslides, debris flows, and infrastructure damage, affecting safety. Using a climate storyline approach and convection-permitting regional climate modeling, we investigate how recent rainfall extremes Gyda (12–14 January 2022), Hans (7–9 August 2023), and Bø (21–22 July 2024), could have developed under +2 K and +4 K regional warming levels and in a colder (−2 K) past climate. The average change in precipitation intensity per degree of warming for the entire events of Gyda, Hans, and Bø is 3.9 ± 0.4% K−1, 9 ± 1% K−1, and 19 ± 4% K−1, while the change in maximum 1-hour intensity is 10 ± 0.7% K−1, 15 ± 2% K−1, and 30 ± 8% K−1, respectively, indicating intensification exceeding the rate expected from atmospheric moisture scaling alone (~7% K−1). Additionally, the area extent affected by heavy precipitation of all events substantially increases with warming. Overall, extreme precipitation responses to warming depend on event-specific atmospheric processes.