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<p>Collier County, southwest Florida, experienced catastrophic flooding and building losses during Hurricane Ian (Cat-4, 2022) and Hurricane Irma (Cat-3, 2017). This study evaluates how sea level rise (SLR) and hurricane characteristics influenced these events to inform future preparedness. A 3D vegetation-resolving surge-wave model coupled with a parametric hurricane wind and precipitation model was used to simulate flooding for both storms. Estimated structural losses were $126.3 M (Irma) and $1.95B (Ian), with NFIP-insured losses within 7–12% of FEMA claims. Ian’s inundation corresponded to a 100–10,000-year flood, while Irma’s was mostly ~100 years, based on comparison with ~300 synthetic storm simulations. Losses were comparable to those expected from a 100-year flood (Irma) and 3500-year flood (Ian). Sensitivity analyses revealed that SLR, higher intensity, larger size, slower speed, more perpendicular track, northern landfall, and high tide amplified Ian’s impact. Climate change-driven SLR and intensity increases substantially heightened flood risk and damages.</p>

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Coastal flooding in Southwest Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月11日

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  • Vladimir A. Paramygin,
  • Y. Peter Sheng

摘要

Collier County, southwest Florida, experienced catastrophic flooding and building losses during Hurricane Ian (Cat-4, 2022) and Hurricane Irma (Cat-3, 2017). This study evaluates how sea level rise (SLR) and hurricane characteristics influenced these events to inform future preparedness. A 3D vegetation-resolving surge-wave model coupled with a parametric hurricane wind and precipitation model was used to simulate flooding for both storms. Estimated structural losses were $126.3 M (Irma) and $1.95B (Ian), with NFIP-insured losses within 7–12% of FEMA claims. Ian’s inundation corresponded to a 100–10,000-year flood, while Irma’s was mostly ~100 years, based on comparison with ~300 synthetic storm simulations. Losses were comparable to those expected from a 100-year flood (Irma) and 3500-year flood (Ian). Sensitivity analyses revealed that SLR, higher intensity, larger size, slower speed, more perpendicular track, northern landfall, and high tide amplified Ian’s impact. Climate change-driven SLR and intensity increases substantially heightened flood risk and damages.