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<p>Wildfire in Northeastern Asia presents significant challenges to climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic systems. Here, we investigate the influence of preceding winter snow on spring wildfires in Northeastern Asia. Our results reveal soil moisture serves as a key mediator linking winter snow to spring fires. Anomalously low (high) snowfall during winter leads to drier (wetter) land surfaces in spring, thereby increasing (decreasing) spring wildfire risk. A multiple linear regression model based on this mechanistic association achieves a robust four-month lead forecast of spring burned area, with a prediction-observation Spearman correlation of 0.65 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), and explains 41% of the variability in the spring burned area across Northeast Asia. Cross-validation further confirms the significance and reliability of this lead-time relationship. Our findings highlight the pivotal role of winter snow in modulating spring wildfire activity in Northeastern Asia and demonstrate the potential to leverage snow conditions to improve seasonal wildfire forecasts.</p>

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Winter snow as a skillful indicator for spring wildfire in Northeast Asia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月6日

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  • Meng Meng,
  • Yunfei Lan,
  • Daoyi Gong,
  • Neng Luo,
  • Ziyin Zhang,
  • Yanyan Pei,
  • Qichao Yao

摘要

Wildfire in Northeastern Asia presents significant challenges to climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic systems. Here, we investigate the influence of preceding winter snow on spring wildfires in Northeastern Asia. Our results reveal soil moisture serves as a key mediator linking winter snow to spring fires. Anomalously low (high) snowfall during winter leads to drier (wetter) land surfaces in spring, thereby increasing (decreasing) spring wildfire risk. A multiple linear regression model based on this mechanistic association achieves a robust four-month lead forecast of spring burned area, with a prediction-observation Spearman correlation of 0.65 (p < 0.01), and explains 41% of the variability in the spring burned area across Northeast Asia. Cross-validation further confirms the significance and reliability of this lead-time relationship. Our findings highlight the pivotal role of winter snow in modulating spring wildfire activity in Northeastern Asia and demonstrate the potential to leverage snow conditions to improve seasonal wildfire forecasts.