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<p>We assess the economic resilience of US employment centers as a function of both the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery rates by analyzing commuter behavior between 2019 and 2024 using large-scale, anonymized mobile phone geolocation data covering more than 20 million monthly devices. After creating a methodology to identify employment centers, we develop a time-dependent spatial network of commuting patterns and use machine learning models to test the influence of employment center, worker and origin neighborhood characteristics on commuting levels over time. We find that central-city employment centers lost more commuters than suburban ones yet recovered faster, that centers with workers from Democratic-leaning districts tended to lose more commuters, and that one-quarter of employment centers did not recover from the initial pandemic impact. Our analysis is intended to understand the shifting spatial structure of cities and to help policymakers assess the localized effects of future exogenous shocks.</p>

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Commuter loss and retention in US employment centers during COVID-19 and its aftermath

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月12日

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  • Bartosz Bonczak,
  • Shlomo Angel,
  • Constantine E. Kontokosta

摘要

We assess the economic resilience of US employment centers as a function of both the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery rates by analyzing commuter behavior between 2019 and 2024 using large-scale, anonymized mobile phone geolocation data covering more than 20 million monthly devices. After creating a methodology to identify employment centers, we develop a time-dependent spatial network of commuting patterns and use machine learning models to test the influence of employment center, worker and origin neighborhood characteristics on commuting levels over time. We find that central-city employment centers lost more commuters than suburban ones yet recovered faster, that centers with workers from Democratic-leaning districts tended to lose more commuters, and that one-quarter of employment centers did not recover from the initial pandemic impact. Our analysis is intended to understand the shifting spatial structure of cities and to help policymakers assess the localized effects of future exogenous shocks.