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<p>Rapid growth in e-commerce has intensified last-mile logistics, increasing pressures on urban sustainability due to rising delivery-related greenhouse gas emissions. However, effective mitigation has been limited by the absence of nationwide, fine-grained measurements of last-mile emissions. Here, using 14 billion orders and location data from 1.9 million couriers, we estimate last-mile delivery emissions across 365 Chinese cities. We find that order growth does not translate proportionally into emissions: an 83.5% increase in orders from 2023 to 2024 resulted in only 31.3% additional emissions. While larger cities produce higher total emissions, smaller cities show per-order emissions up to four times greater, driven primarily by lower delivery efficiency shaped by urban density. Mitigation simulations suggest that emissions could be reduced by up to 84.2%. These findings advance understanding of how e-commerce interacts with urban systems and reveal actionable pathways toward more efficient and sustainable urban logistics.</p>

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Decarbonizing emissions from last-mile deliveries in Chinese cities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月28日

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  • Zhiqing Hong,
  • Zelong Li,
  • Shuxin Zhong,
  • Wenjun Lyu,
  • Haotian Wang,
  • Shenhao Wang,
  • Shuai Wang,
  • Yunhuai Liu,
  • Dabo Guan,
  • Tian He,
  • Guang Wang,
  • Desheng Zhang

摘要

Rapid growth in e-commerce has intensified last-mile logistics, increasing pressures on urban sustainability due to rising delivery-related greenhouse gas emissions. However, effective mitigation has been limited by the absence of nationwide, fine-grained measurements of last-mile emissions. Here, using 14 billion orders and location data from 1.9 million couriers, we estimate last-mile delivery emissions across 365 Chinese cities. We find that order growth does not translate proportionally into emissions: an 83.5% increase in orders from 2023 to 2024 resulted in only 31.3% additional emissions. While larger cities produce higher total emissions, smaller cities show per-order emissions up to four times greater, driven primarily by lower delivery efficiency shaped by urban density. Mitigation simulations suggest that emissions could be reduced by up to 84.2%. These findings advance understanding of how e-commerce interacts with urban systems and reveal actionable pathways toward more efficient and sustainable urban logistics.