<p>Natural disasters challenge global sustainability as well as regional sustainable economic growth. Previous studies have primarily focused on geographic spillovers of natural disasters, paying limited attention to how intercity economic linkages transmit and amplify these shocks. Here, by using geocoded disaster data and firm-level investment records from China, we integrate spatial econometric models with modified spatial weight matrices and complex network methods to quantify spillover effects across geographic and economic networks. Our findings indicate that neglecting economic linkages leads to an underestimation of total economic losses by 52.5% to 57.5%. Cities with higher centrality or clustering coefficients amplify negative spillovers, and the growing complexity of intercity investment networks intensifies these effects. We underscore the critical gap in conventional disaster impact assessments that overlook economic interdependencies, and we therefore advocate for cross-city disaster resilience policies that account for economic interdependencies beyond geographic proximity.</p>

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Intercity economic ties amplify natural disasters spillovers in China

  • Hantian Sheng,
  • Canfei He,
  • Wenbo Hu

摘要

Natural disasters challenge global sustainability as well as regional sustainable economic growth. Previous studies have primarily focused on geographic spillovers of natural disasters, paying limited attention to how intercity economic linkages transmit and amplify these shocks. Here, by using geocoded disaster data and firm-level investment records from China, we integrate spatial econometric models with modified spatial weight matrices and complex network methods to quantify spillover effects across geographic and economic networks. Our findings indicate that neglecting economic linkages leads to an underestimation of total economic losses by 52.5% to 57.5%. Cities with higher centrality or clustering coefficients amplify negative spillovers, and the growing complexity of intercity investment networks intensifies these effects. We underscore the critical gap in conventional disaster impact assessments that overlook economic interdependencies, and we therefore advocate for cross-city disaster resilience policies that account for economic interdependencies beyond geographic proximity.