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<p>Historically, cities have figured prominently in wars, including as targets. However, the impacts of warfare on the environmental signatures of urban systems remain less understood. Here we propose a comprehensive satellite-constellation-based framework to systematically assess methane emissions attributable to the Russia–Ukraine war. We find that this conflict overturns the conventional urban–rural methane emissions relationship, typically dominated by rural methane emissions. Urban methane emissions, initially just 21% of rural levels, rapidly rise to match rural levels after very few attacks and escalate to ~146%–588% of rural levels under extensive and intensive warfare, revealing urban systems’ greater vulnerability to warfare disruption. Civilian infrastructure, primarily residential buildings, emerges as a major emission source, matching military facilities in both emission intensity and frequency. These findings uncover an underappreciated, direct relationship between warfare, methane emissions and urban degradation. In the context of ongoing global conflicts, this relationship underscores the urgent need to monitor the greenhouse-gas signatures of besieged cities and highlights peace as a fundamental prerequisite for achieving climate-related Sustainable Development Goals.</p>

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Vast and hidden urban methane emissions from the Russia–Ukraine war

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月4日

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  • Zeyu Feng,
  • Rong Hu,
  • Yuqing Pan,
  • Qianjian Xv,
  • Jing Zhang,
  • Qingyong Wang,
  • Kaiqin Cao,
  • Shufeng Liu,
  • Alexander Baklanov,
  • Jens Hesselbjerg Christen,
  • Daniel Rosenfeld,
  • John H. Seinfeld,
  • Shaocai Yu,
  • Pengfei Li

摘要

Historically, cities have figured prominently in wars, including as targets. However, the impacts of warfare on the environmental signatures of urban systems remain less understood. Here we propose a comprehensive satellite-constellation-based framework to systematically assess methane emissions attributable to the Russia–Ukraine war. We find that this conflict overturns the conventional urban–rural methane emissions relationship, typically dominated by rural methane emissions. Urban methane emissions, initially just 21% of rural levels, rapidly rise to match rural levels after very few attacks and escalate to ~146%–588% of rural levels under extensive and intensive warfare, revealing urban systems’ greater vulnerability to warfare disruption. Civilian infrastructure, primarily residential buildings, emerges as a major emission source, matching military facilities in both emission intensity and frequency. These findings uncover an underappreciated, direct relationship between warfare, methane emissions and urban degradation. In the context of ongoing global conflicts, this relationship underscores the urgent need to monitor the greenhouse-gas signatures of besieged cities and highlights peace as a fundamental prerequisite for achieving climate-related Sustainable Development Goals.