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<p>Anthropogenic warming is known to have influenced vegetation fires. However, how, or to what extent, a warming climate will impact urban fire frequency remains unknown. Here we quantify the shift in the frequency of various urban fire incident types in response to a warming climate using a global fire incidents database collected from 2,847 cities. We find that the frequency of building fires increases quadratically, and the minimum occurs at thermal comfort temperature (that is, around 24.0 °C), while for every 1 °C increase in air temperature, the frequencies of vehicle and outdoor fires increase by (2.5 ± 0.8)% (mean ± standard error) and (4.7 ± 2.2)%, respectively. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2100, we project that building fire frequencies could decrease by (4.6 ± 1.1)%, while vehicle and outdoor fires could increase by (11.6 ± 3.7)% and (22.2 ± 10.2)%, respectively. These findings can guide the development of climate-resilient strategies by providing quantitative advice on allocating and reallocating budgets for national fire services across cities.</p>

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Increasing fire risks in cities worldwide under warming climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月3日

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  • Long Shi,
  • Jinhui Wang,
  • Guohui Li,
  • Michael Yit Lin Chew,
  • Heping Zhang,
  • Guomin Zhang,
  • Bogdan Z. Dlugogorski

摘要

Anthropogenic warming is known to have influenced vegetation fires. However, how, or to what extent, a warming climate will impact urban fire frequency remains unknown. Here we quantify the shift in the frequency of various urban fire incident types in response to a warming climate using a global fire incidents database collected from 2,847 cities. We find that the frequency of building fires increases quadratically, and the minimum occurs at thermal comfort temperature (that is, around 24.0 °C), while for every 1 °C increase in air temperature, the frequencies of vehicle and outdoor fires increase by (2.5 ± 0.8)% (mean ± standard error) and (4.7 ± 2.2)%, respectively. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2100, we project that building fire frequencies could decrease by (4.6 ± 1.1)%, while vehicle and outdoor fires could increase by (11.6 ± 3.7)% and (22.2 ± 10.2)%, respectively. These findings can guide the development of climate-resilient strategies by providing quantitative advice on allocating and reallocating budgets for national fire services across cities.